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Thursday, 31 May 2018 04:54

Opinion: AKB48 World Election Preliminary Results Analysis

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The preliminary results of AKB48 53rd Single World Senbatsu General Election were revealed last night. However, it has produced a bit of a surprise results in which Matsui Jurina is not the clear winner as expected, and 2 SKE48 top members Suda Akari and Souda Sarina' votes are below expectation. Let's take a look on the results:

First of all, the overall votes were up about 10%, the single first day sales were up 5% according to Billboard Japan (30% according to ORICON) without Sashihara Rino participated and Watanabe Mayu graduated.

Will Matsui Jurina crown this year?

Most medias predict SKE48 member Matsui Jurina will ascend the throne at Nagoya, with home field advantage and SKE48 10th anniversary effect, her votes increased by 12% (38,943 votes / 34,641 votes) indeed. However, she lost to NGT48 member Ogino Yuka who remains her Preliminary Queen position. Moreover, she may lost to HKT48 member Miyawaki Sakura's, the popular young star who claims it will be her last election, got 32,614 votes, her votes got dramatic increase by 54% (21,151 votes last year).

Does SKE48 get more advantage this year?

This year's General Election will be held at Nagoya, and it is the group's 10th anniversary, however it seems the spell did not work in preliminary results, top member Suda Akari's votes were down 9%, Souda Sarina's votes were even less than 3,493. and out of top 120 ranking. However, actually the group have 30 members in top 120, I think it is because SKE48 fans focus their votes on new generation members: Isshiki Rena's vote up 148% (13,372 votes / 5,393 votes), Arai Yuki votes up 65% (11,533 votes / 6,984 votes), Obata Yuna's votes up 62% (10,963 votes / 6745 votes), Kitagawa Ryoha's votes up 73% (8,613 votes / 4,972 votes), Suenaga Oka's votes up 78% (6,577 votes / 3,682 votes).

Sashihara Rino's legacy

Sashihara Rino is most popular AKB48 group's current member, without her participation. It seems her fans' votes go to Yabuki Nako, her votes increased by 126% and 13,981 votes (6,175 votes last year), Tanaka Miku's votes increased by 62% (10,859 votes / 6,681 votes), Mikyawaki Sakura's votes were up 54% as above mentioned.

The 2nd General Director is not easy

Yokoyama Yui got 10,296 votes and ranked 21st place, and her vote drops 15% (12,031 votes last year), it seems it is not easy to reach her target: Top 3 at upcoming General Election, on the other hand AKB48 new leader Takahashi Juri got more votes: 20,670 votes which increased by 21% (17,047 votes), and she got Yokoyama Yui's partner Shimazaki Haruka endorsed.

Return of Kato Minami

After Kitahara Rie's graduation, and former governor Yoneyama Ryuichi's sudden resign, many fans worry the group will lose Niigata's local support, however, it seems they still got local support, but the target had changed to another member Kato Minami and Tano Ayaka, instead of Homma Hinata. Kato Minami who was unranked in preliminary results last year, got 13,905 votes and ranked 9th place. Tano Ayaka got 17,332 votes (4,199 votes last year) and ranked 7th place. However, the group's 3rd single center Homma Hinata's votes decreased by 14,994, she got only 10,038 votes this year (25,032 votes last year).

NMB48 and STU48's crisis

NMB48 next generation member and representative Shiroma Miru only got 8,102 votes and placed at 39th place, her votes were down 27% (11,084 votes last year). Another NMB48 top member Yoshida Akari got 7,555 votes and placed at 42nd place, her vote were down by 8%. On the other, another sister group STU48, their center Takino Yumiko got 6,615 votes and placed at 53rd place, another STU48 member Ishida Chiho got 7,409 votes and placed 44th place. They were far behind other local sister groups.

The last AKB48 First Gen

Minegishi Minami were out of top 120, will her loyal fans make her back to top 20 miraculously like last year? or even top 16? Moreover, I think many fans may concern: Will Minegishi Minami announce graduation at Nagoya Dome?

Where is TPE48?

According to Taiwanese AKB48 fans, Warner Music Taiwan has not released the single (Chinese version) yet.  

Read 4315 times Last modified on Saturday, 02 June 2018 01:59

8 comments

  • Comment Link Rita Thursday, 31 May 2018 14:45 posted by Rita

    I just hope Minegishi gets back into senbatsu, she's been trying to get back in for quite a long time. It's gonna be a disadvantage for her since she wasn't included in the 51st-52nd single senbatsu. Plus she wasn't top 100 last years preliminary results and eventually managed to be ranked in.

  • Comment Link NMB OSHI Thursday, 31 May 2018 14:49 posted by NMB OSHI

    NMB is sure a lot crisis. Just hope more NMB members ranks in, last year not much were rank in. At least more new faces in NMB were top 120 in the pre-ssk result.
    I have faith that annyan and azusa will be ranked in because: annyan was part of the Wcenter with sayanaee in the team N songs and azusa was part of queentet and joined nmb's senbatsu.

  • Comment Link Colin J Thursday, 31 May 2018 15:15 posted by Colin J

    I agree there are some fair points. But again, first day sales. They mean a lot but they also don't mean a lot.

    Miichan for instance didn't rank pre-lim last year as well. She ended up ranking 19 overall. (Though yes, I expect her to announce graduations in Nagoya, even though I may not be able to handle it. )

    Ogi may have ranked 1st again. But she barely gained 20k last year after the first day. Sakura gained 4 times as much last year and Jurina gained like 3.2 times as much. Jurina managed to break the 100k mark somewhat(?) easily while Sakura and Ogi didn't get that close. I still say it's up in the air.

    But yes, SKE is getting a lot of votes for the newer gen members. WHich is good. Also NMB is quite in a crisis. STU was expected, imo, and NMB is a bit of a surprise. I wonder how that one will turn out.

    Also Team 8 Momoka! An amazing surprise!

    Statistic wise you are quite on point Paul, as usual. You make quite the solid points. I guess we'll see where it goes. Hopefully good things so we can enjoy this year's SSK.

  • Comment Link NMB OSHI Thursday, 31 May 2018 15:58 posted by NMB OSHI

    *Aayan, sorry.

  • Comment Link Remy Friday, 01 June 2018 00:53 posted by Remy

    Miichan was busy this year during several of the big events, if I remember correctly, with that play she was in. I kinda figured maybe she wouldn't rank high this year but hoped it wouldn't be the case. Next year though will be her year!

    Nako in the top 8 though~

  • Comment Link Tuberose Friday, 01 June 2018 04:45 posted by Tuberose

    Miichan didn't ranked in prelim last year as well BUT if she really failed to rank this year on the final result and announced graduation after that...God it would sounds like she finally admit defeat and that's sad. Gotta work hard and make sure she will rank this year.

    NMB surprised me tho. Mirurun ranked so low despite being the new center of NMB, I thought their fans were saving up for SSK when I saw Yokubomono's sales. BUT (2) who knows, the table can always be turn. Mirurun+Nagisa+Queentet+Aayan, only 8 members is fine but please rank.

    I'm not into STU yet so there's not much expectation. BUT (3) Ishida Chiho ranked higher than Yummy was indeed a surprise.

    I still think BNK Cherpang will make it to Kami7. Fight BNK fans! I want an overseas member!

    The biggest surprise was SKE's achievement. Nagoya Dome effect? Nevertheless, vote Jurina!

    HKT's Nako tho. She's my oshi in HKT so I'm happy she make it to Top8.

    Talking about 8, Team 8 is amazing this year too. BUT (4) where's YokoYui the Dancing Machine? She deserves a spot in Top100.

    NGT is definitely that one sister group that might actually destroy AKB. Whatcha Gonna Do AKB AKS?

  • Comment Link Zombirie Monday, 04 June 2018 02:12 posted by Zombirie

    is it because of Riripon's shocking announcement last year that might be the case, that NMB is on crisis?

  • Comment Link Conscious Pilot Wednesday, 06 June 2018 05:46 posted by Conscious Pilot

    I remember the year Komiyama Haruka got like rank #37 in the Prelims and then DID NOT even make Rank #80 in the election - the following year ranks #21?? then last year ranked #53?? You can't judge by Prelims - so it's anyone's guess.

    However, on another note is the Geesh (Minegishi) thing all that surprising?? This is where "The West" gets Sentimental in ways Easterners don't seem to be. This is "MONEY" we're talking about- Who is spending ALL that money on Votes for Geesh? OR Inversely why are so many (or a group of Wotas) spending so much money on YUKA (NGT48)? What are they getting out of it? Minegishi has had EVERY Bite at the Apple- admitted defeat & still come back again and now she's back AGAIN!!!! How many times is she going to hold her bowl out & ask (beg?) for MORE "Votes" (more attention, air-time, fame, back-pats).

    Milky (NMB48), Sae (SNH, AKB, SKE), Rena-Shibata-Kummin (SKE), Kasai-Tomomi-Mariko-Paruru-Kawaei (AKB48) ALL left us wanting MORE!! They Left at the top of their game and NEVER Looked Back. Even Takamina is silent now. I think Fresh Lemon deserved more & she was always 'circling the rim' but she was pleased w/ what she got & you never saw her play the victim.

    If You're STILL a fan of Minegishi congrats- you've gotten your money's worth- She's the LAST 1st Gen. I'm surprised she hasn't written a "Tell ALL" Book or gone into Management or something because NO ONE doubts her experience in AKB- But she was NEVER In Mayu's League & AKB gave her so many "graceful ways" to leave & she just hangs around.

    It's creepy to me that Geesh outlasted Miki Nishino (Team 4) who got an early Grad from a scandal and Geesh is still doing elections? Sasshi turned HKT48 into gold - Geesh used all her "scandal attention" on herself (the Wig & Stuff). If she doesn't even Rank in this Election who are we to blame??- why keep clawing for 'scraps' of attention. She could use her skills & experience for better things- why can't she move on??

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